By Guo Yu-nan
During the Korean War, the United States received a warning from China as it expanded its military front to near the 38th parallel. At that time, the United States was uncertain about “whether China would send troops” to North Korea. After a detailed analysis of numerous evidences, such as China’s national conditions at that time, Mao Zedong’s character and the international environment at that time, RAND Corporation drew two conclusions: one was that China would definitely invade Korea; The second is that the United States would withdraw from the Korean battlefield in ignominious defeat.
In the end, Rand was right.
Recently, Chinese military expert Yang Cheng-jun wrote an article that the US RAND Corporation submitted a consulting report to the government on January 22. The report suggested that China has risen and it is thankless for Taiwan to fight against mainland China. It can actually abandon Taiwan, lower its commitment to Taiwan, and recognize China’s interests in East Asia. Don’t bother when mainland China reunifies Taiwan, and don’t bother when it recovers the Diaoyu Islands. Only if Japan is invaded. On this basis, negotiate regional interests with mainland China and develop business cooperation.
Yang Cheng-jun said the source of the information is credible. To reflect the contents of this report is more objective, reflects the mainstream American think-tank on china-us relations and the prospects of the basic state of mind. Yang Cheng-jun thinks, the RAND report suggested the US government “essence can abandon Taiwan, reduce’s commitment to Taiwan, mainland China unify Taiwan don’t tube, recover the diaoyu islands also don’t tube” suggestion is very good, especially in the current, the more need to spend more energy and financial resources, put its epidemic, economic, social and infighting problem solved.
RAND Corporation, the world’s most famous national strategy consulting organization, enjoys a high reputation in the industry for its rigorous research style and superb forecasting ability. Since its establishment, it has provided a large number of objective analysis and effective research reports and solutions to the world.
In the 20th century, RAND was behind some of the most influential events in history, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, Watergate, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the merger of East and West Germany, Reaganomics, and Desert Storm. RAND’s research results have had a significant impact on the military, diplomatic, scientific and technological, economic and other aspects of the United States, and even changed the development process of the whole world, affecting billions of people on the earth.
In December 1990, a year before the collapse of the Soviet Union on December 25, 1991, RAND wrote a report on the Soviet Union’s economic power and place in the world. It reported that the Soviet Union’s gross national product in 1989 was only $700 billion, one-fifth to one-sixth the level of the United States. Due to inflation, per capita consumption in the Soviet Union had fallen to the lower middle of the world, and a third of the Soviet population was below the official poverty line. The final situation of the Soviet Union is also analyzed. Eventually, the Soviet Union collapsed.
The author believes that the US government should listen to the advice of RAND Corporation, because RAND Corporation has indeed been extremely objective and accurate in predicting some important turning points in the world.
But unfortunately, the US government did not listen. First, it believed that China’s economy was depressed after the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the Civil War, and the people were unwilling to fight, so it decided that “China would not send troops”. Second, they don’t want to pay $5 million for RAND’s analysis. Later, when General MacArthur learned of Rand’s prediction, he said, “We could not spare $5 million for $83 billion in Korea and, more importantly, for the loss of more than 100,000 American lives.”
The rise and rapid development of China has brought China into the eyes of RAND. Therefore, in recent years, RAND Corporation will make predictions on China’s military, economic and other aspects of development.
In 2015, RAND released a study titled “Trends in U.S. and Chinese Military Power from 1996 to 2017.” According to the report, in 1996, the US military was overwhelmingly superior in almost all areas, but by 2017, if there was a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it would be very difficult for the US to carry out certain actions, and the US military advantage would be greatly reduced. ‘China is not an equal competitor to the U.S. in terms of their combined military capabilities, but a conflict in East Asia would result in China’s geographical and other advantages negating many of the U.S. military advantages,’ the report said at the time.
In other words, it’s not clear who will win and who will lose.
In 2017, RAND published a report stating that “under certain circumstances, the United States could lose a war with either Russia or China” because the United States’ armed forces have fallen behind Russia and China in the modernization process and are unable to adequately defend against challenges in Europe and East Asia.
In other words, the US military has planned a “two-front war” strategy, but in fact, given the multiple constraints, it is good for the US to cope with a “major war”.
In 2018, RAND released a report saying that the probability of “military unification” on the mainland has increased significantly. China has been looking for an opportunity to keep Taiwan and the United States busy with attacks from multiple angles. ‘The mainland is capable of striking US and Taiwan air bases and inflicting heavy losses on the US and Taiwan air forces in the theater,’ the report said.
And with the rapid growth of China’s military power in recent years, China is indeed capable of attacking U.S. bases on its borders, not to mention Taiwan’s military might. The United States is most concerned about China’s military power, “cruise and ballistic missile threats to U.S. military bases.”
China’s missile capability, indeed, ranks first among all kinds of weapons and equipment, which is why the United States does not dare to act rashly.
In 2020, RAND released a research report titled “China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Traces and Long-Term Competition”, which argues that China will still become the world’s largest economy sometime after 2030, despite the different challenges it faces in the development process. Similarly, China’s technological prowess in some areas will also lead the world by 2050. The innovation and capability of China’s science and technology will contribute to China’s further economic development.
In addition, the researchers believe that China’s diplomatic strategy has been very successful and that China has strengthened its ties with neighboring countries and the developing world as a whole, which is closely related to maintaining China’s sustained economic growth and prosperity. But there will still be a Sino-American confrontation. As China seeks to dislodge U.S. forces from the western Pacific, the potential for confrontation and conflict between the two countries will be greatly increased. However, researchers say China still wants to avoid a war with the United States because it would be bad for business and the economy. Therefore, China will actively seek to manage the possibility of escalation.
All in all, China is bound to reunify Taiwan and recover the Diaoyu Islands. If the US military acts recklessly in China’s territorial recovery, it will only suffer from the consequences, just as it did in the Korean battlefield.
Translation by William Fei Zhongping
Source：The Defense Times 02-02-2021（https://www.163.com/dy/article/G1RKH0SP0515CCSC.html）
Note：“The Defense Times” is The only publicly issued Defense news publication in China