First of 2 parts
By RICARDO SALUDO
FIRST, the wrong way: joining hands with the United States in confronting China through maritime patrols, anti-Beijing advocacy and most dangerously, the rotation of massive US forces in our country with access to Philippine military bases under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, or EDCA.
President Rodrigo Duterte has wisely stopped full EDCA implementation, even going ballistic in January 2017 when Washington announced that it was ready to build warehouses, barracks and runways under the executive agreement between then Presidents Benigno Aquino 3rd and Barack Obama.
In February this year, Duterte repeated his 2017 statement barring the entry of nuclear weapons. He threatened to scrap the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which allows rotations of US troops for military training and exercises, “if I get hold of hard information that nuclear armaments are here brought by you.”
Plainly, allowing massive US forces into our country, including air and naval assets capable of nuking most of East Asia, turns the Philippines into a strategic threat and target for China (and North Korea, too), just as Cuba nearly became so, when Russia tried to station missiles there in 1962 after America put projectiles in Turkey (both superpowers later withdrew their rockets).
The very real threat of devastating attack on US forces and the bases they use poses a mammoth security risk that we should not take. Under EDCA, American troops can use air bases near Cebu City, Cagayan de Oro and Puerto Princesa, plus one each in Nueva Ecija and Pampanga, right smack in our main rice-growing region.
During or ahead of conflict with America, priority targets for China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would be “aircraft carriers and regional air bases,” explained the RAND think-tank in its 2016 report, “War With China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable,” funded by the US Army (https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html).
Frankly, it was high treason for the Aquino 3rd administration to bring this immense threat of attack, possibly nuclear, upon Filipinos, especially those in Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Palawan and Central Luzon.
Not to mention risking centuries-long radioactive contamination of our primary rice fields. Plus collateral damage on Filipino communities from PLA attacks on US warships hiding among the thousands of islands and vessels in our internal waters, which makes them harder to hit than in the open sea.
America’s real security agenda
What about joint patrols? Wouldn’t the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard command more respect from China’s maritime police and militia if we sailed with the US Seventh Fleet in its “freedom-of-navigation operations,” or fonops, challenging Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim over most of the South China Sea waters and land features?
The problem with joining Uncle Sam’s South China Sea operations lies in its far bigger agenda in these waters. One of them is to build military prowess for possible war with China, including the capability to blockade its shipping.
Indeed, the US Army-funded RAND study explicitly recommends as a war strategy “cutting off Chinese access to seaborne supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas.”
If the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard join the Seventh Fleet’s fonops, our vessels would invariably be seen and treated as PLA potential adversaries, not just in a possible conflict over Philippine maritime claims, but also in a war with the US, which, according to RAND, could ignite over Taiwan, Korea, or rival Chinese and Japanese claims in the East China Sea.
US military deployment under EDCA is seen in the same light: armed buildup not just for Philippine defense, but for American power projection in Asia.
Leading US security think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), whose Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) constantly provides satellite photos of Chinese ships in the South China Sea, makes clear what EDCA means for Washington’s security agenda in the region.
Writing to President Joseph Biden about US security planning in Asia, CSIS explained in its “Memorandum to the President” (https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-alliance-philippines):
“Much of our current planning rests on the assumption that EDCA will be implemented. US Indo-Pacific Command (IndoPaCom) hopes to disperse US forces, including marine and army units, along the first island chain running from Japan through Southeast Asia.
“In a contingency, these small, mobile teams would support US air and naval operations and hold Chinese vessels at risk with ground-based missile units. It is a sound strategy to counter China’s naval and missile advantages in its near waters. But the Philippines is the only country in Southeast Asia that might realistically host such assets. So, these plans require saving the VFA and implementing EDCA.”
Yes, you read it right: If CSIS reflects their thinking, Washington military planners want to use our country for missile attacks on Chinese forces in war. That is America’s real defense interest in the Philippines, despite repeated pledges from US Secretaries of State and Defense to help protect our security under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty.
No wonder that for the first EDCA facility, the Americans did not choose Puerto Princesa air base, ideal for West Philippine Sea operations, nor Cebu and Cagayan de Oro, most useful for disaster relief. Instead, their first base construction site was Basa Air Base in Pampanga — much closer to Taiwan, Korea and the East China Sea.
Advocates pushing a US-Philippines alliance against China hope that Chinese intrusions in the West Philippine Sea would become a top election issue next year. Even before then, they demand more actions by Philippine forces to assert our maritime claims, including patrols and territorial markers.
And if there is an incident, they hope it would pressure President Duterte to fully implement EDCA, just as the loss of Scarborough Shoal led to the agreement.
God forbid. We can defend our sovereign rights without getting dragged into Uncle Sam’s potential conflicts with China. Let’s talk about that next Thursday, May 20.
Republished From Manila Times 13, May 2021