Victor N. Corpus
To attack China militarily, the Western Alliance led by the US has to overcome two major obstacles: China’s geographic advantages and China’s “Assassin’s Mace” involving both offensive and defensive systems.
CHINA’S GEOGRAPHIC ADVANTAGES
a. China’s combined land and sea power versus sea power of the US and allies. Sea Power is limited by the available space afforded by floor area in surface combatants. They could carry only so much missiles, combat aircraft, ammunitions, personnel, supplies, and fuel in their floating flotilla. On the other hand, China’s space as a land power is continental in size; with enough space for thousands upon thousands of missiles, many of them anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to sink any numbers of aircraft carrier strike groups. They also include missile variants for anti-submarine systems, anti-satellite systems, and anti-airbase systems and all these systems and sub-systems are hidden and protected in more than 5,000 kilometres of strategic tunnels.
Even if China does not use a single warship in its PLA Navy and only use instead its anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the DF21Ds, DF26Cs, and DF17s, it can wipe out and sink every major surface combatant that the Western Alliance send to confront it in the South China Sea or East China Sea. In military parlance, this is called “asymmetric warfare”, part and parcel of “unrestricted warfare”. These ASBMs usually attack in swarms, with no known defence as of now. So, if NATO/QUAD led by the US sends their aircraft carrier strike groups, cruisers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, and nuclear submarines to wage war against China in the South or East China Sea, the land vs sea power battle will be a replica of the famous ancient “Battle of Cannae” – resulting in the total annihilation of the NATO/QUAD naval armada led by the US Navy. The latter’snavies will have nowhere to hide; like sitting ducks being eliminated by simultaneous attacks of missile swarms. It will take only about 15-20 minutes and it will be all over for the NATO/QUAD armada led by the US Navy.
The famous ancient “Battle of Cannae” will be replicated in modern times if the combined forces of QUAD, G7, and NATO led by the US mass forces in the SCS in a military confrontation with China. The combination of China’s “land power” (i.e., Anti-ship ballistic missile like DF21s,DF26s,DF17s; anti- systems; anti-submarine systems; and anti-air base systems) and China’s “sea power” (Chinese submarines manoeuvring with Russian submarines to interdict and block the escape of surviving Western warship from the simultaneous swarm missile attacks coming from land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles of China.) The end result will be a complete route of the Western naval armada in the SCS – a modern-day replica of the “Battle of Cannae”.
b. Geographic proximity of China to the main battle area (SCS & ECS) gives China the advantage because all of its anti-ship ballistic missiles and their variants for use against air force bases harbouring US stealth fighters and bombers and those against satellite-based C4ISR are well within range – up to 4,000 kms from the Chinese mainland – to include US bases in Guam. When China responds to the “first strike” of the Western Alliance, it will be a simultaneous swarm attacks by China’s Assassin’s Mace against targets at sea, undersea, on land and in space. The modern-day “Battle of Cannae” may last for only a few minutes. That is how the tempo of modern warfare has evolved since the advent of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA).
c. Eurasian Heartland vs the Rimland. A NATO/QUAD attack on China would surely involve the participation of its close and informal allies, Russia and Iran. There is a good chance that the conflict could turn nuclear; especially if the NATO/QUAD armada led by the US Navy is annihilated in the SCS by China’s “Assassin’s Mace”. So, before China act versus the Western naval armada in the SCS, prior planning with Russia and Iran is a prerequisite. Before China unleashes it “assassin’s mace”, prior arrangements had been made that Russia sends its SSBNs and SSNs to US East Coast; while China sends its own to US West Coast; ready to act in the event that US decides to go nuclear. Iran, on the other hand, closes the Strait of Hormuz; where 90% of Japan’s energy supply and 60% of NATO’s come from.
China, Russia, and Iran are physically occupying and in full control of the Eurasian Heartland; what Mackinder calls the geographic pivot of history, saying that who controls the “heartland” will eventually control the world. The US, in her attempt to contain the “heartland” occupiers, have adapted Spykeman’s Rimland Concept by encircling the Eurasian Heartland with some 800 military bases. But because of military advances arising from the ongoing revolution in military affairs, these hundreds of military bases have turned into liabilities for the US. Such fixed targets can easily be eliminated by simultaneous missile swarm attacks from Russia, Iran and China. They can all be eliminated within minutes. That is how much the new tempo of modern warfare has changed.
d. US and QUAD/NATO allies are forced to cross oceans (Pacific, Indian, Atlantic) toreach the battlegrounds of the SCS and ECS. In the process, the Western Alliance extended sea lanes of communication exposes their logistic and personnel to ambush by Chinese and Russian submarines and interdiction by bombers with air launched hypersonic anti-ship missiles (Kinzhal, CH-AS-X-13) and land-based Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (DF21Ds, DF26Cs, & DF17s). In contrast, China, Russia and Iran will be moving forces inside their own territories with secured/protected lines of communication, or in the territories of their allies in the SCO; their mobility facilitated by high-speed rail nets in the Heartland.
e. “Never hit with both fists in two directions at the same time.”– basic military dictum. But the US and its Western Allies will be forced to fight on multiple fronts; such as the SCS front, the ECS (Taiwan) front, the Korean Peninsula Front, the Persian Gulf Front, the Syrian Front, the Ukraine Front, the US East Coast Front; and the US West Coast Front. US and allies will be forced to disperse their forces thinly on a global scale; liable to defeat in detail. Meanwhile, China, Russia and Iran’s forces can maneuver forces rapidly with the aid of high-speed rail crisscrossing the Eurasian Heartland to concentrate superior forces and defeat the invading US/NATO/QUAD forces one by one.
f. US/NATO/QUAD, being the invaders, will not gain any popular support; while the Heartland occupiers China, Russia, and Iran, being the defenders of their land, will have popular support. Mencius, some two millenniums past, had cautioned: “Perfect timing is less important than positional advantage; but positional advantage is less important than popular support”. It is easier for China, Russia, and Iran to rally their own population to fight and drive out the foreign invaders of the “heartland”. For China, this may not even come to pass, because the would-be invaders can be annihilated in the SCS and ECS. Butif, by chance, the invaders were lucky enough to set foot on Chinese soil, they may not make it alive going back home.
CHINA’S “ASSASSIN’S MACE”
a. OFFENSIVE. Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (DF21Ds, DF26s, DF17s, & CH-AS-X-13s). These are medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles designed to hit moving targets at sea; with variants designed to target satellites as well as fixed targets on land like air bases harbouring stealth aircraft and bombers. There are also special missiles designed for use against submarines. They are also designed to attack some targets in swarms. No other country so far has developed this kind of technology. They are land-based, road-mobile and sheltered in some 5000 kms of strategic tunnels in the China mainland. The DF26 can be both conventional and nuclear. For nuclear purposes, China has the DF41s, equipped with 15 nuclear warheads and can hit any chosen target on earth. It is also road-mobile and sheltered in strategic tunnels. China also have nuclear submarines (SSBNs & SSNs) and strategic stealth bombers (H-20s). Special Weapon Systems include autonomous AI-aided drone swarms above ground and underwater; laser Weapons, microwave weapons, and rail guns.
b. DEFENSIVE. In the early 1950s, Chairman Mao made a call on the Chinese People: “Dig tunnels deep; store grains everywhere; and never seek hegemony.” Since then till today, China had kept on digging. More than ten years ago, there was a report that China already have some 5,000 kms of strategic tunnels housing their nuclear arsenal. It could be that that number is more than double or triple now, considering how they increased the mileage of their high-speed rail. They also have more than 40 air bases with underground hangars, and one submarine base that is also underground. In addition, all the major cities have extensive underground subway system that doubles as civil defence in the event of a nuclear war. China’s entire east coast is covered with redundant air defencesystem; while the entire eastern coastline is covered by anti-submarine detection and attack system (autonomous unmanned underwater drone swarms.) I doubt whether the US have a similar system for defence. Perhaps they are so confident that no one would ever dare attack the US mainland; which both Russian and Chinese nuclear TRIAD can do.
So, going back to the question: Can a united QUAD, G7, & NATO led by the US Navy defeat China Militarily? My answer is YES, but only if they can overcome the geographic advantages that China enjoys; and if they can survive and escape the gauntlet that China’s “Assassin’s Mace” has lain on their way; combined with Russian and Chinese submarines forming an arc some distance for the SCS & ECS to pick up any strugglers. If the attacking Western fleet fails to cope with this Chinese/Russian response, they will be like the overwhelmingly numerous Roman soldiers that were annihilated by Hannibal’s numerically inferior Carthagian warriors in that famous ancient “Battle of Cannae”- commonly known as the “battle of annihilation”.