WITH Duterte father and daughter leading the latest Pulse Asia survey on voter preferences for president and vice president, political pundits, media and especially the opposition ask: Why?
The coronavirus disease 2019, or Covid-19, continues to spread even after the longest lockdown in the world, which shrank the Philippine economy far more than any other in Asia. Critics in the opposition and mainstream media also lambast President Rodrigo Duterte for his China policy, his bloody war on drugs, the alleged corruption in his administration and many more shortcomings.
Now, even his ally Sen. Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao has taken issue with Duterte’s conciliatory approach toward China and the alleged corruption in his administration, purportedly including P10 billion in missing pandemic response funds.
So, those who take a dim view of Duterte’s rule are amazed and appalled that he repeatedly received record approval ratings in Pulse Asia’s opinion polls, even during the pandemic (https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1345150/pulse-asia-8-in-10-filipinos-favor-duterte-admins-covid-19-response).
Plus: he and his daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, are the most preferred candidates for vice president and president in the June voter survey, also of Pulse Asia (https://www.pulseasia.ph/june-2021-nationwide-survey-on-the-may-2022-elections/).
Sara reprised her 28-percent top rating in the earlier survey last November while dad Duterte, included in the VP poll for the first time after he said last month that he may run for the post, got an 18-percent mark, also highest among VP candidate choices.
The daughter’s percentage was about double what second-ranked aspirants garnered: Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, 14 percent; former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., 13 percent; and Sen. Mary Grace Poe, 12 percent. Senator Pacquiao and VP Maria Leonor Robredo were further behind at 8 and 6 percent.
President Duterte, at 18 percent, also had a significant lead over Domagoso (14 percent), Senate President Vicente Sotto 3rd and Marcos (both 10 percent), Pacquiao (9 percent), and Taguig Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano (8 percent).
The presidents we elect and why
What’s with the Filipino support for the Dutertes? It’s certainly not fawning mainstream or social media, since the top newspapers and many social media sites are never short of criticism against the administration.
Is it all just name recognition, as some of those downplaying their top survey rankings blame? Then why doesn’t Pacquiao or Marcos top the polls, since their names are nationally and internationally known far longer and more widely than Duterte’s.
Nope, Filipino voters are not so swayed even by media, and certainly not by big names alone. Rather, we vote for the leader whose personality is best suited to address the biggest national problem come election time.
That’s the thesis of this writer’s April 25, 2016, column, “The presidents we elect and why,” which saw Duterte as the most preferred candidate for president two weeks before the elections. The article argued:
“If Duterte wins, it may affirm the crucial election role played by an apparent dynamic between the personalities and reputations of presidentiables, and the paramount national concerns of the nation prevailing during the campaign and election.
“It involves two key factors. One is widely assumed to be the main reason voters choose their favored candidate: personality. We elect the presidentiable whose qualities we find most appealing and impressive. This perceived character supposedly trumps issues and platforms, which most voters don’t know much about anyway.
“So, Duterte wins support among people wowed by tough talk, while Poe attracts those seeking a kindly, wholesome leader. Binay appeals to voters who want tried, steady and fatherly hands, while Roxas’ brainy, cultivated manner has yet to catch on.
“It’s not as simple as that, however. In fact, issues do count, and the traits that eventually woo the bulk of voters are determined by the paramount concerns of the citizenry.
“That’s the other key factor in the dynamic: the overarching problems or issues facing Filipinos pondering whom to elect.
“In sum, the candidates who gain the most support are those whose traits and qualities are seen to be most effective in addressing the main national concerns at each election.
“Hence, voters pick candidates not just because they like or admire them as persons. Rather, we elect leaders because their reputed personalities are most suited to addressing our paramount concerns.”
The article then recounted that all presidential election winners since Corazon Aquino had the personality suited to the main national problem at the time of elections.
Cory was the non-politician untainted by Marcos-era sleaze. Fidel Ramos showed toughness and resolve to end the instability and brownouts under Cory. Joseph Estrada was the masa man the poor sought after the pains of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.
Voters unhappy with actor-president Estrada chose Gloria Macapagal Arroyo over another movie star, Fernando Poe Jr. Benigno Aquino 3rd was projected as Mr. Clean amid years of corruption allegations against Arroyo. And Duterte won as the only candidate who promised to stop crime – which had tripled under Aquino as state statistics showed.
The pandemic buster
Today, it’s clear what the paramount national problem is: Covid-19, which is strangling not only lives but also livelihoods. And while critics may argue with solid data that the government could have done much better in fighting the pandemic and keeping the economy growing, for the overwhelming majority of Filipinos who are still alive and making ends meet somehow, President Duterte is keeping them alive and afloat.
Moreover, looking around the region and the world, the Philippines seems to be keeping Covid at bay better than most nations, including neighboring Indonesia and Malaysia, and even widely vaccinated Britain and America.
The pandemic and economic situation looks set to further improve, with tens of millions of vaccine doses arriving by December, enough to drastically reduce Covid hospitalization and death in major cities and open up the economy in the months before the May elections.
Of course, the pandemic might still get intolerably worse. Or there could be some other mega-issue that hurts rather than helps Duterte. Maybe a multibillion-peso scandal tainting his family, or a Chinese island grab if Beijing were dumb enough to try it.
Other than that, two Dutertes may just win next May.
Republished from Manila Times