Frances Mao BBC reporter from Sydney
The security agreement signed with the United States and Britain will enable Australia to obtain a huge defense improvement from the world’s most powerful military.
But this is a conditional gift. There are also disputes over whether such a decision without consultation with the public is in Australia’s national interest.
Middle ground no longer
As China’s power grows, it begins to challenge the dominance of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. China has built the world’s largest navy and has become increasingly confident in disputed areas such as the South China Sea.
Australia has long believed that there is no need to choose between these two powers, but in recent years, its attitude towards Beijing has become tougher.
China has been suspected of interfering in Australian politics and launching cyber attacks on key institutions.
Last year, when Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origin of the new crown epidemic, tensions intensified. Subsequently, China imposed a series of sanctions on Australia’s exports.
According to John Blaxland, a professor of international security at the Australian National University, that is Australia’s “Aha! Moment” (Translator’s Note: “Aha! Moment” refers to a sudden realization).
“People gradually realized that everything that happened before was not benign,” he said. “We are referring to a country that has become extremely hostile.”
Australia is aware that it needs to quickly strengthen its defenses.
Main advantage
In this regard, AUKUS is a great success for the country. The agreement will enable Australia to use American technology to produce nuclear-powered submarines and long-range missiles.
The agreement involves the sharing of information and technology in multiple fields, including military intelligence and quantum technology, as well as the procurement of cruise missiles. But nuclear-powered submarines are the key.
“All of this is to allow the Australian Defence Force to contend with China in the region and to gain an advantage when our own defense force capabilities are declining,” said Richard Maud, a former senior Australian security official and current policy chairman of the Asia Association of Australia. (Richard Maude) said.
In the event of a conflict, Australia will for the first time have the ability to strike an opponent remotely.
What did the United States get?
For the United States, sharing the most core part of defense technology is quite a big deal.
But experts say Washington views this “one-off” deal as a key move to further contain China’s efforts.
They added that as China projects naval power into the region, the Australian fleet—albeit smaller and still some distance away from being equipped—will form some form of counterattack with the patrolling US forces.
“We are trying to catch up with (China) by developing a reliable deterrent to reduce the possibility of war,” Brackland said.
“Because our deterrent force is not reliable at all. China can basically act against us to a certain extent with impunity. This is becoming politically intolerable.”
But what are the disadvantages?
Critics believe that because of the agreement, Australia has given up strategic ambiguity and has become a bigger goal.
“The way this agreement was announced teared away any pretense that Australia did not stand firmly on the side of military containment of China,” said Professor Allan Gyngell, chairman of the Australian Institute of International Affairs. .
Analysts warned that Australia may face more economic retaliation from its largest trading partner.
“The two countries still have a long way to go before the normalization of diplomacy, which will only exacerbate the situation,” said Dr. Lixia Chen from the University of Technology Sydney.
Others said that the AUKUS agreement will also lock Australia and the United States together for generations to come.
In the future, Australia may struggle to maintain its decision-making autonomy to maximize its interests, and it will rely on foreign nuclear technology.
“We can’t operate the submarine ourselves. Therefore, we are actually giving up part of our sovereignty to the United States and perhaps the United Kingdom,” Ginger said.
“Therefore, without the approval of the United States, the main strike capability of the Australian Navy will not be able to function.”
He said that despite Australia’s recent voice of positioning itself in Asia, it has regained its status as a “smaller partner in the English-speaking world”.
“We once again interacted with people we know, and gave up efforts to build closer relations with other countries in the region,” Ginger said. “This is problematic.”
Perspectives in the area
Maud also emphasized the risks from Southeast Asia, the region will “increasingly feel that Australia believes that the security of the region can only be managed by other Western powers.”
Indonesia cancelled its meeting with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Malaysia warned that the agreement was “a catalyst for the nuclear arms race.”
James Chin, an analyst at the University of Tasmania, said AUKUS strengthened the notion that “when it comes to superpowers and their operations in the region, the opinions of ASEAN member states are irrelevant”.
Some analysts say that despite this, many smaller Asian countries are happy to see this bold move by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
“In private, experts will tell you:’We think you Australians are clumsy and ignorant, but we don’t hate what you are actually doing. We just don’t like the way you do things-we want you to do it before Tell us so that we will feel included and will be more grateful,’” Blackland said.
Crisis is coming
Most experts said that Australia has mishandled its diplomacy around AUKUS. It also seriously offended France because it violated the previous submarine deal.
Experts say this is a bad sign, because international relations involve both military agreements and diplomacy.
Analysts said that maintaining the dominant position of the United States in the region is in the interests of Australia and other democracies. But scholars are fundamentally divided on the best way to achieve this goal.
Some people say that a more cautious approach is needed, and more hawks say that China will not respond other than displaying force.
One thing seems certain-we are heading towards a more tense period.
“We are used to East Asia being a calm place in the world, and this will no longer be true,” Ginger said.
“Therefore, foreign policy and national defense will have a greater impact on the lives of ordinary Australians than in the past few decades. Things are getting closer and closer to us.”