By: Victor N. Corpus
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently issued a statement that the US does not recognize the legality of most of China’s claim in the South China Sea. This is followed by US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper’s statement that “Goodwill and best wishes do not secure freedom. Strength does”. Such fighting words were followed up by US deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups (the Ronald Reagan and the Nimitz) with their complete complements of cruisers, destroyers, frigates, supply ships, and submarines into the area conducting so-called “freedom of navigation” and naval exercises that included live firing.
In response to these US actions, China conducted live firing of its “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missiles; the DF21D and the DF26B in the South China Sea. China reiterated that China will never be the first to fire the first shot in the South China Sea. But the Global Times of China intimated that the second shot may well be either of these two missiles, or both, targeting US aircraft carrier strike groups. The DF26B has a range of some 4000 kilometers and can destroy targets up to Guam.
To understand this simmering “cold war” that can easily turn into a “hot war” between two nuclear-armed superpower, it is necessary to go back a little in history. When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 90s and the US emerged as the sole superpower in the world, US strategic planners formulated a US defense strategic guideline; the gist of which is contained in the “Wolfowitz Doctrine” that goes: “Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.” (New York Times, Mar. 7, 1992.)
China may have felt alluded to by this US defense strategic guideline as Deng Xiaoping issued his own strategic guidelines on how to cope with this seeming threat to China’s very own survival as a nation and civilization. Deng Xiaoping issued the call capsulized in a 24-character strategy: “OBSERVE CALMLY; SECURE OUR POSITION; COPE WITH AFFAIRS CALMLY; HIDE OUR CAPACITIES AND BIDE OUR TIME; BE GOOD AT MAINTAINING A LOW PROFILE; AND NEVER CLAIM LEADERSHIP.”
This 24-character strategy was issued by Deng as one of his last acts as a public servant; as Deng Xiaoping officially retired from all of his public positions in 1992, the year this strategy was issued to the whole of China. Few may have noticed, but this was perhaps the greatest contribution of Deng Xiaoping to the Chinese nation. Deng knew that the US defense strategy is to launch a “preventive war” against any nation that will threaten to gain parity, or worse, superiority over the US in economic, military, or technological terms. Hence, US will launch a “preventive war” that will prevent a rising power (such as China) from gaining parity or superiority. US logic with the Wolfowitz Doctrine is to strike a rising rival while it is still weak and the US still enjoys overwhelming superiority economically, militarily, and technologically.
When Deng Xiaoping issued his 24-character strategy in 1992, China was still economically, militarily, and technologically weaker than the U.S. If a war between US and China erupted in that period of time; China would have suffered a devastating defeat and driven back to the Stone Age; although both US and China were already nuclear-powers at the time.
In 1992, China was still in the process of developing a weapons system that was then code-named “assassin’s mace” designed to counter US advantage militarily; i.e., the US aircraft carriers strike groups (about a dozen of them in operation); some 400 US military bases deployed to encircle China, Russia and Iran; and US superiority in satellite-based C4ISR (command, control, communication, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance). Around that time too, China was still developing its strategic tunnel system following Mao’s call: “dig tunnels deep; store grains everywhere; and never seek hegemony”. They were also developing subway system in every major city to serve as civil defense in case of a major war. And they were also developing an underwater hydroponic system along the east coast to monitor adversary submarines. China was also developing underground hangers in many of their air bases where their most advanced aircraft are kept underground. At that time, China was also still in the process of covering its entire east coast with redundant air defense system.
Hence, way back in 1992, China cannot afford a shooting war with the US. This was why Deng Xiaoping repeated the word “calmly” twice: “observe calmly”; “cope with affairs calmly”. If, say, Chinese leadership failed to follow Deng’s exhortation when the US deliberately bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999 (i.e., 2 years after Deng had passed away); China would have been reduced to rubble at that point in history. It was that important word “calmly” repeated twice in a 24-character formula that saved the Chinese nation and civilization from certain destruction – possibly EXTINCTION.
“Hide our capabilities and bide our time” said Deng. Those capabilities refer to the “assassin’s mace” weapons system referred to earlier. “Bide our time” meant that they can only show said weapons system when they already have enough of them; ready for either offense or defense. One of such “times” was when China shot down one of its satellites traveling at hypersonic speed using a ground-launched variant of the DF21. This was on January 11, 2007; the first time in the world that a satellite was targeted by a ground-launched ballistic missile. The implications of this feat are that China was then capable of targeting objects in outer space like satellite-based C4ISR, orbiting weapons systems, and incoming ICBMs. If China is capable of targeting objects in space travelling at hypersonic speeds, what more of lumbering aircraft carriers moving at a snail’s pace at sea; or fixed air bases on land harboring stealth aircraft and bombers?
Note the date (January 11, 2007) when China had decided that it was time to show their capabilities, and to bide its time no more. This was the time of Hu Jintao; not yet Xi Jinping. To give the readers an idea of the significance of this Chinese display of its capabilities; Russia recently announced the advent of its S-500 air defense system, reputed to be the best air defense system in the world; as it is capable of shooting down adversary satellites or incoming ballistic missiles. But China had achieved such capabilities displayed by the S-500 more than a decade ago. Now, China have made more advances like the maneuvering hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missile such as the DF-17s, microwave weapons, laser weapons, rail guns, quantum communications, and cyber capabilities.
Aside from the US bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999, the US conducted other provocations to egg China into war; such as the sending of two US aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait in 1996 during the Taiwan Presidential Elections; the US spy plane incident in Hainan in 2001; the “Operation Summer Pulse” where the US concentrated 7 aircraft carrier strike groups (the biggest naval armada ever assembled) off Taiwan in 2004; and the “Talisman Saber” that started in 2005 wherein US and Australian navies conducted biennial naval exercises rehearsing the naval blockade of the Malacca Strait.
The “Talisman Saber” was the last major provocation by the US on China; and China’s reaction to this provocation has a lot of bearing to the tension between the two rival powers in the South China Sea. This naval exercise by the US and Australia that started 15 years ago and repeated every two years continuing up to the present day has something to do with China’s SURVIVAL. Some 5 trillion dollars’ worth of oil and traded goods pass by the Malacca Strait annually; and most of them belongs to China. A naval blockade of the Malacca Strait and other nearby chokepoints in the area such as the Sunda, Lombok, Makassar Straits can force the Chinese economy to grind to a halt.
This geographical problem is mainly a China problem; oftentimes referred to as the “Malacca Dilemma”. It is said that geography is immutable. But to China who is grappling for survival as a result of this potential threat from a superpower rival that is doing all it can to provoke a fight in the belief that China is still weak and US is strong; geography is not immutable. There is a saying by Mao: “turn a bad thing into a good thing.” And that is what China did. In 2012, when President Xi Jinping assumed power, China started to build 7 artificial islands in the South China Sea; three of which have 3-km long runways. The US is extremely pissed off by China’s geostrategic move in building the islands because it completely reverses the situation in the South China Sea in China’s favor. With the construction of said islands, China hits two birds with one stone.
First, it serves as a trump card against the US Talisman Saber plan to conduct a naval blockade against China in the event of a major confrontation between the two major rivals. The US and its allies will now think twice before launching a naval blockade of the Malacca Strait because China could easily bring its anti-ship ballistic missiles, together with China’s J-20 stealth fighter bombers, strategic bombers, air defense systems, and anti-submarine system into those artificial islands to thwart any planned blockade by US and its allies. Said islands can accommodate more weapons systems than all of the US aircraft carriers (and that of its allies) combined.
Second, the artificial islands serve as a sort of guard post against US Ohio Class Nuclear Submarines using the Manila Trench as a surreptitious avenue of approach for a first nuclear strike on China’s east coast. The Manila Trench is the only deep portion in the whole of South China Sea where nuclear submarines can approach China’s east coast to conduct a nuclear first strike; wherein China will have no time to react due to the close proximity of such first strike. China’s 1.4 billion people are concentrated mostly on China’s east coast; and China’s main industries/production facilities as well. Four US Ohio Class nuclear submarines surreptitiously approaching China’s east coast and launching a first nuclear strike can bring the whole Chinese nation and civilization to EXTINCTION in a matter of hours – if not minutes.
The two factors described above are the main reasons why China built those 7 artificial islands in the South China Sea. For China, it is a matter of SURVIVAL. When the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague came out with its decision that China’s occupation of those islands were illegal, China responded that such decision were null and void. The US even sent two aircraft carrier strike groups to implement the PCA decision; but China stood its ground and informed the US naval commander of the carrier task group that China is prepared to go to war if US touches those islands. And for the first time in US naval history; it was forced to retreat.
Now, there is another stand-off. Will the US dare touch the artificial islands this time around?The PLA has already intimated of what is to come if the US fires the first shot: a barrage of anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to sink the two US aircraft carrier strike groups in the area. And China now has the capability to retaliate against any nuclear strike by the US with its DF41 ICBMs; the longest-range ICBM on the planet. And the US doesn’t even know how many of these missiles China possesses as they are being manufactured inside thousands of kilometers of strategic tunnels.
source Manila Times 09-24-2020